Results & Error Budget
This page synthesises answers to the two guiding questions. Data rendered live from sites.json and config.json. Protocol: Architecture. Site assessments: Ledger.
Depth Timeline
Q1 — How Deep Is the Chain?
Answer: From the conventional anchor at 52,500 ya, approximately N ≈ 1,750–2,100 parent layers. From the deepest ornamental evidence (Bizmoune, ~142,000 ya), N ≈ 4,730–5,680.
Anchor Points
Q2 — Which Traditions Cross the Threshold?
Answer: All assessed traditions with securely dated material evidence exceed N > 40 by large margins. The real discriminant is at which levels and through which channels they can be confirmed.
Threshold-Crossing Summary
Key Finding: Australian Convergence
The Australian corridor (Madjedbebe → Murujuga → Nawarla Gabarnmang → Kimberley) is unique for three convergent reasons:
- Depth: Material evidence spans ≥65,000 years (~2,416 layers).
- Dual-channel confirmation: Stratigraphic and custodial evidence converge independently.
- Living custodianship: Aboriginal communities maintain active connection as ongoing practice.
Candidate comparative claim (not yet formalised): Aboriginal Australian landscape-anchored creative traditions represent the longest documented continuous creative transmission chains. Requires formal Ledger entry CL-2026-XXX with competitors and discriminant conditions.
Error Budget
| Source | Magnitude | Affects | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 · g variance | ±17% on N | All layer-depth calculations | Sensitivity band (g=25–30). No threshold-crossings sensitive. |
| EB-2 · Epistemic asymmetry | Binary | All non-Australian sites | Dual-channel protocol. Custodial Null defined. |
| EB-3 · Cascade rule | Systematic downgrade | Semantic without Practice anchor | Epistemic, not ontological. Karampuang downgraded v0.3. |
| EB-4 · Dating uncertainty | ±5–20% | Individual N-values | Minimum-age constraints. Dating Revision Protocol. |
| EB-5 · Pedigree collapse | Systematic | Interpretation of N | N is depth, not breadth. Palaeogenomic evidence cited. |
| EB-6 · Neanderthal boundary | Binary | El Castillo, Divje Babe | Deferred deliberation (GF-5). |
| EB-7 · Convergence vs. diffusion | Classificatory | Cross-continental comparisons | PROBABLE-[Convergent] annotation. |
| EB-8 · UNDET. feasibility | Variable | Open entries | Discriminant Condition + Feasibility Flag. |
| EB-9 · Stratigraphic gaps | Site-specific | Continuity claims | Nawarla gap bridged by custodial. Sulawesi LGM flagged. |
| EB-10 · Anchor convention | Systematic offset | Absolute N-values | 52,500 ya declared; substitution invited. |
Hierarchy: EB-1 and EB-2 dominate. EB-1 shifts all N-values proportionally but does not affect threshold-crossings. EB-2 systematically caps non-Australian Semantic scores.
What Remains Open
- Formal Ledger entry CL-2026-XXX for Australian continuity claim.
- Stress-test of N > 40 with counterexamples.
- Expanded site list (Mezin, Marsoulas, Lascaux, Cosquer, Ubirr, songlines).
- Neanderthal scope deliberation (GF-5).
- Semantic drift case studies for cascade-rule edge qualification.